Current and Future Waves of Technological Transformation: Potential Economic Impacts and the Challenges for Public Policy in Ireland

Abstract

Change is a constant and economic history has been shaped by not only multiple waves of technological change but the transformative impact of these changes for both industry and society. As new technologies come to pervade more sectors and occupations over time, it is likely that this technology will give rise to challenges and risks but also opportunities and benefits. If we are honest, we cannot know for certain the trajectory of emerging technologies but for this paper, we aim to make a contribution by looking at the possible impact of current – and future – waves of technological change in Ireland. Building upon earlier work, we suggest that Ireland is relatively more exposed to AI than is the case for other advanced economies and that factors such as gender, age and educational attainment have an important role to play here. We contend that the extent to which AI augments – or replaces – human labour in the medium to long-run will depend on a variety of economic, social and policy factors (including levels of AI regulation and the future interaction between AI and advanced robotics). We consider the limitations of this type of work and suggest some possible avenues for future analysis. We show that that multiple aspects of public policy will have an important role to play; that the process of technological change has the potential to impact Ireland’s Exchequer in many ways (including the risks posed by any potential global speculative investment bubble); and that issues such as lifelong learning, public trust and social inclusion cannot be overlooked.